The Week

Perhaps Mrs. O’Connor would consider staying on.

On Oct. 15 Iraqis go to the polls to vote on the new constitution. U.S. officials were hoping the document would embody a national consensus of all Iraq’s major groups. Instead, Sunnis strongly oppose its federalism and will vote against it. But they probably don’t have the numbers to bring it down. How this affects the political situation in Iraq is anyone’s guess. If after voting for the first time (they boycotted the Jan. 30 elections) Sunnis acquire a taste for electoral politics, that will be a welcome development. On the other hand, if they decide democratic politics in Iraq is stacked against them, that might further fuel the insurgency. Meanwhile, the U.S. is launching more effective military operations in western Iraq. The classic counterinsurgency tactic is “sweep, clear, and hold.” But the U.S. has worried that doing the holding would inhibit the maturation of the Iraqi forces and alienate the locals. So we have had to sweep and clear over and over while waiting for the Iraqis to become ready. Now they are holding in places like Tal Afar, raising the prospect of making permanent gains against the insurgents. But all ultimately depends on the political picture, and that will be murky for some time.

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Perhaps Mrs. O’Connor would consider staying on.

On Oct. 15 Iraqis go to the polls to vote on the new constitution. U.S. officials were hoping the document would embody a national consensus of all Iraq’s major groups. Instead, Sunnis strongly oppose its federalism and will vote against it. But they probably don’t have the numbers to bring it down. How this affects the political situation in Iraq is anyone’s guess. If after voting for the first time (they boycotted the Jan. 30 elections) Sunnis acquire a taste for electoral politics, that will be a welcome development. On the other hand, if they decide democratic politics in Iraq is stacked against them, that might further fuel the insurgency. Meanwhile, the U.S. is launching more effective military operations in western Iraq. The classic counterinsurgency tactic is “sweep, clear, and hold.” But the U.S. has worried that doing the holding would inhibit the maturation of the Iraqi forces and alienate the locals. So we have had to sweep and clear over and over while waiting for the Iraqis to become ready. Now they are holding in places like Tal Afar, raising the prospect of making permanent gains against the insurgents. But all ultimately depends on the political picture, and that will be murky for some time.