Jack Kemp’s numbers in the polls have hovered steadily at about 10 per cent, reflecting a committed organization and unwavering grassroots support. Opposing strategists point to the spread between Kemp’s numbers and those of the front-runners, Bush and Dole. Yet, at 10 per cent, his base is conspicuously higher than Bush’s was at a comparable point before the 1980 campaign, or Carter’s in 1975.
To put it differently, Kemp is in tune with the conservative profile of the delegates who will do the nominating in New Orleans a little less than a year from now. He has proved all he needs to prove regarding 1) his conservative credentials, 2) his grasp of arcane policy detail, and 3) his claim to leadership post Reagan (remember Kemp-Roth?). What remain are what strategists call “threshold” qualities: Is Jack Kemp balanced, mature, seasoned? If Kemp can display these qualities on the campaign trail, he can make his numbers move. In other words, style is where Kemp needs work. A relaxed, confident candidate connects with the voters better than a perfect exposition of a complicated concept. Voters judge candidates by’ their qualities, not their position papers.
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