On the Scene

Windhoek—Former Deutsch Süd-west Afrika, twice the size of France and with a population of only 1.5 million, consists largely of desert wastelands and bush, only sparsely dotted by towns with names such as Luderitz and Swakopmund. The capital, Windhoek (pop. 70,000), is normally a cross between a Midwest backwater and St. Tropez off season, but of late the number of cars in its streets has doubled, the room rates in its five hotels have quadrupled, and the bars resound with cheers in dozens of languages—the UN contingent is here to oversee the turning of Africa’s last colony into independent Namibia. There has been little trouble so far, apart from the SWAPO incursion from Angola in April (see NR, May 5). Stuck in sleepy, spotlessly clean towns, most UNTAG [United Nations Transition Assistance Group] officers are catching up on their reading and leafing through duty-free car brochures. The South Africans have determined to score a brownie point for terminating their occupation of South West Africa and have so far scrupulously adhered to their agreements.

In itself, Namibia is of little consequence despite its deposits of uranium and diamonds, but the success or failure of its transition to independence will be crucial to the rest of southern Africa. By withdrawing from South West Africa the South Africans are losing their overland supply lines to UNITA in Angola: thus the Cuban withdrawal and the hope of a settlement in Angola hinges on the success of the independence process. Above all, if a black majority government in Namibia were to prove a success— capitalistic, tolerant, and efficient— what better signal to white South Africans that a handover of power to the majority need not mean a slide into dictatorship and poverty? The ANC has just proposed a constitutional settlement for South Africa mirroring the plan for Namibia. But if, despite Namibia’s sparse population, superb infrastructure, relaxed race relations (apartheid has been all but abolished for years, and black townships here are wealthier than many working-class Afrikaner suburbs in South Africa), untapped mineral wealth, healthy agricultural economy, and vast tourist potential—if despite all these blessings, Namibia were to become another African disaster of incompetence, bogus rhetoric, military coups, tribal domination, and voodoo economics, then who could be surprised if the white South Africans dug in their heels?

RS

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Radek Sikorski

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Windhoek—Former Deutsch Süd-west Afrika, twice the size of France and with a population of only 1.5 million, consists largely of desert wastelands and bush, only sparsely dotted by towns with names such as Luderitz and Swakopmund. The capital, Windhoek (pop. 70,000), is normally a cross between a Midwest backwater and St. Tropez off season, but of late the number of cars in its streets has doubled, the room rates in its five hotels have quadrupled, and the bars resound with cheers in dozens of languages—the UN contingent is here to oversee the turning of Africa’s last colony into independent Namibia. There has been little trouble so far, apart from the SWAPO incursion from Angola in April (see NR, May 5). Stuck in sleepy, spotlessly clean towns, most UNTAG [United Nations Transition Assistance Group] officers are catching up on their reading and leafing through duty-free car brochures. The South Africans have determined to score a brownie point for terminating their occupation of South West Africa and have so far scrupulously adhered to their agreements.

In itself, Namibia is of little consequence despite its deposits of uranium and diamonds, but the success or failure of its transition to independence will be crucial to the rest of southern Africa. By withdrawing from South West Africa the South Africans are losing their overland supply lines to UNITA in Angola: thus the Cuban withdrawal and the hope of a settlement in Angola hinges on the success of the independence process. Above all, if a black majority government in Namibia were to prove a success— capitalistic, tolerant, and efficient— what better signal to white South Africans that a handover of power to the majority need not mean a slide into dictatorship and poverty? The ANC has just proposed a constitutional settlement for South Africa mirroring the plan for Namibia. But if, despite Namibia’s sparse population, superb infrastructure, relaxed race relations (apartheid has been all but abolished for years, and black townships here are wealthier than many working-class Afrikaner suburbs in South Africa), untapped mineral wealth, healthy agricultural economy, and vast tourist potential—if despite all these blessings, Namibia were to become another African disaster of incompetence, bogus rhetoric, military coups, tribal domination, and voodoo economics, then who could be surprised if the white South Africans dug in their heels?