Republican Party: Holding Its Own?

LIKE SOME beach-front property owner struggling with a sea-wall, the Republican Party entered this election year hoping to hold its own in Congress, or maybe even improve its position somewhat. Republican hopes rested on some basic political arithmetic. It is an old axiom of political lore that the party in the White House gets clobbered in off-year elections. Old, yet misleading—for the clobberings are unevenly distributed. Most of the great in-party debacles of the modern era—1938, 1946, 1958, 1966, 1974—occurred in the sixth year of an eight-year cycle. After only two years in office, the party that holds the White House tends to lose modestly in Congress or even to gain a few Senate seats. (The recession election of 1982 was an exception, from which the Republican contingent in the House has not yet recovered.)

Republicans wanted badly to do well this fall, in order tobeina good position for 1992. That election will be the political equivalent of a Wall Street triple witching hour: it will be a presidential year; it will be the first election with the new congressional districts based on the 1990 census; and it is bound to be a year with a record number of open seats, since the grace period allowing congressmen to take their unspent campaign war chests with them into retirement will have expired. The GOP would dearly like to enter that election at something better than a nadir.

About the Author

Richard Brookhiser

Historian Richard Brookhiser is a senior editor of National Review and a senior fellow at the National Review Institute.

Featured Tags

LIKE SOME beach-front property owner struggling with a sea-wall, the Republican Party entered this election year hoping to hold its own in Congress, or maybe even improve its position somewhat. Republican hopes rested on some basic political arithmetic. It is an old axiom of political lore that the party in the White House gets clobbered in off-year elections. Old, yet misleading—for the clobberings are unevenly distributed. Most of the great in-party debacles of the modern era—1938, 1946, 1958, 1966, 1974—occurred in the sixth year of an eight-year cycle. After only two years in office, the party that holds the White House tends to lose modestly in Congress or even to gain a few Senate seats. (The recession election of 1982 was an exception, from which the Republican contingent in the House has not yet recovered.)

Republicans wanted badly to do well this fall, in order tobeina good position for 1992. That election will be the political equivalent of a Wall Street triple witching hour: it will be a presidential year; it will be the first election with the new congressional districts based on the 1990 census; and it is bound to be a year with a record number of open seats, since the grace period allowing congressmen to take their unspent campaign war chests with them into retirement will have expired. The GOP would dearly like to enter that election at something better than a nadir.