Is the Tax Revolt Dead?

Is the Tax Revolt dead? Those who would like to think so can point to recent public-opinion polls showing that support for federal tax reform has dropped below 30 per cent. Or they could point out that in the 1984 elections nearly all the major state initiatives to curb taxes, including those on the ballot in California, Oregon, Michigan, and Nevada, failed. The only successful referendum for spending reduction came in Guam, and it was later invalidated on a technicality. Moreover, pro-tax interests within government have been playing hardball with tax-cutters and getting away with it, as witness Michigan Governor James Blanchard’s no-holds-barred fight against the Voters’ Choice amendment and the Florida State Supreme Court’s decision to knock off the ballot a draconian spending limit that seemed to be going strong.

The recent record may give heart to the high-tax interests, particularly those who want to keep the federal tax structure as it is. But if so, the advocates of the Washington status quo are fooling themselves again as they have fooled themselves repeatedly in recent years. Populist rebellions such as California’s Proposition 13 may no longer be the favorite tactic, but there is still something pretty big coming down the tracks. The Tax Revolt may not have shown up in dramatic state initiatives in 1984, but it exerted influence where it counted most, in the election of candidates. The central role of tax cuts in Ronald Reagan’s re-election is undeniable. And wherever the tax issue loomed large in state politics it proved capable of producing striking upheavals.

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James Ring Adams

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Is the Tax Revolt dead? Those who would like to think so can point to recent public-opinion polls showing that support for federal tax reform has dropped below 30 per cent. Or they could point out that in the 1984 elections nearly all the major state initiatives to curb taxes, including those on the ballot in California, Oregon, Michigan, and Nevada, failed. The only successful referendum for spending reduction came in Guam, and it was later invalidated on a technicality. Moreover, pro-tax interests within government have been playing hardball with tax-cutters and getting away with it, as witness Michigan Governor James Blanchard’s no-holds-barred fight against the Voters’ Choice amendment and the Florida State Supreme Court’s decision to knock off the ballot a draconian spending limit that seemed to be going strong.

The recent record may give heart to the high-tax interests, particularly those who want to keep the federal tax structure as it is. But if so, the advocates of the Washington status quo are fooling themselves again as they have fooled themselves repeatedly in recent years. Populist rebellions such as California’s Proposition 13 may no longer be the favorite tactic, but there is still something pretty big coming down the tracks. The Tax Revolt may not have shown up in dramatic state initiatives in 1984, but it exerted influence where it counted most, in the election of candidates. The central role of tax cuts in Ronald Reagan’s re-election is undeniable. And wherever the tax issue loomed large in state politics it proved capable of producing striking upheavals.