Hence, the following speculative morsel I picked up on the phone in a conversation with one Democratic candidate’s (obviously not Hillary Clinton) deputy in Iowa: his particular anti-Hillary camp’s expectation—or hope—that many caucus goers may be downright reluctant to be visibly observed by friends and neighbors as favoring Clinton. This reasoning (or wishful thinking) runs particularly strong regarding caucus goers who have initially favored a candidate who fails to reach the required 15 percent threshold. The supporters of such a failing candidate, under the theory explained to me, would be under especially heavy peer pressure, given the importance of their second-choice, and the high stakes generally of what is involved in this evening’s event. Thus (under the theory put forward) these individuals under intense observation in the caucus pen would rather not spend the rest of the political season being identified in their neighborhoods and community as the ones who threw their votes to Hillary Clinton, about whom antagonistic feelings of more than a few Democrats, not just Republicans, run high. (The so-called “polarizing factor.”) Interesting.
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