Conservatives are understandably lapping up the somewhat revelatory results of the latest PPP public opinion survey showing President Obama trailing several hypothetical GOP 2012 foes. In the poll, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Newt Gingrich all edge the current president, Sarah Palin ties him, and only Jan Brewer (huh?) trails. PPP concedes Brewer’s main disadvantage is largely a name recognition deficit. After all, the country’s pretty darn wild about the immigration bill she recently signed (74 percent either favor it, or worry it doesn’t go far enough). Add to the mix the fact that PPP is a largely Democratic, left-leaning outfit, and it’s obvious why some people are popping the champagne.
Not so fast, my friends.
In the same sub-set of questions, PPP asks respondents in question 12 whom they voted for in 2008. 46 percent said Obama, 45 pecent McCain, and 9 percent other/”can’t remember.” As many of us painfully recall, Barack Obama beat John McCain by a lot more than a single percentage point two years ago. It was 53-46 Obama over McCain, with roughly one percent casting their ballot for someone else.
If the new the PPP results are representative, virtually all of McCain voters remember and affirm their 2008 choice, yet seven percentage points-worth of Obama voters now claim they voted for someone else, or simply can’t recall their Obama vote? If accurate, that’s a striking result. It would give shape to the nebulous concept of widespread buyer’s remorse Obama’s critics have been crowing about. I guess I’m just a little dubious of a poll with a representative sample that misses the actual 2008 results by such a large margain.
UPDATE: On the flip side, the poll sample favors Democrats by 5 points over Republicans. That seems generous. Another problem with question 12 is that it asks whom people voted for “last year.” A small quibble, sure. But still a quibble.





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