The LA Times/Bloomberg poll out yesterday has McCain down 15 to Obama. This jumped out, however:

In this national poll’s random sample of voters, 39% identified themselves as Democrats, 22% as Republicans and 27% as independents. In a similar poll a year ago, 33% identified themselves as Democrats, 28% as Republicans and 30% as independents.

Rasmussen, who polls party affiliation monthly, has shown more stability in the number of self-identified Republicans over the past year, so we’ll see if the LA Times result holds up. However, there is a bright spot in the poll:

But voters considered McCain better equipped to protect the country from terrorism, 49% to 32%. And though 68% favored withdrawing troops from Iraq within the next year or even sooner, a position close to Obama’s, many were not sure Obama was the right candidate to lead that effort. When asked which candidate would be best at handling the war in Iraq, voters split about evenly: 44% named McCain and 42% named Obama.

An AP poll out confirms this:

Respondents said McCain would do a better job in Iraq than Obama by a margin of 39 percent to 33 percent. Undergirding that response is a strong sentiment that McCain would be a better leader of the military than Obama. One out of three respondents said that description matched McCain “very well,” whereas only one out of ten said the same of Obama, who did not serve in the armed forces.
The Iraq findings track McCain’s advantage on the issue of terrorism. Of those surveyed, more than twice as many believe McCain can better handle terrorism than Obama. As such, McCain is emerging clearly as a candidate of national security, a conventional role for a Republican.
Only 6 percent of those who say they will vote for Obama say McCain would do a better job on Iraq. But among “weak” Obama supporters, that figure rises to 15 percent. Moreover, among undecided voters, McCain is preferred 25 percent to 15 percent over Obama on Iraq.

I would say that the LA Times/Bloomberg poll is probably off because of a sampling of too many Democrats, but McCain’s still down by about 6 percent or so.