A pair of public-opinion polls released over the last few days has prompted a small wave of fear and loathing on the Right. Neither of the surveys, however, are as dire as they may seem at first glance.
First came the New York Times/CBS News poll indicating a staggering 66 percent approval rating for President Obama, coupled with alarmingly low marks for the GOP. How could Obama’s popularity have soared after a series of bruising policy debates and embarrassing faux pas?
As Ed Morrissey explains, here’s how: The NYT/CBS poll cooked the books. Buried on page 23 of the report is the partisan breakdown of the sample group. As it turns out, the news outlets surveyed 39 percent Democrats, 23 percent Republicans, and the rest independent or unaffiliated voters. That’s a whopping 16 point spread between the D’s and R’s. Rassmussen, by contrast, pegs the actual partisan gap at about 5 percentage points. Jim Geraghty also notes that on election night 2008, one of the most successful electoral feats ever performed by the Democrats, their party ID advantage was seven points. So unless that breakdown has jumped a mystifying nine points since November, this poll is questionable at best.
Next, Allahpundit laments a CNN poll with the attention-grabbing bottom line that 72 percent of Americans don’t believe Obama will make the country less safe. “If we’ve lost the national security vote, what’s left?” he wonders. Once again, we must look beyond the headline.
CNN framed the question as a referendum on Dick Cheney’s recent criticisms of Obama security policies. Those surveyed were essentially asked whether or not they agreed with Cheney. Considering his exceptionally low approval ratings upon leaving office, it wouldn’t surprise me if 72 percent of respondents would disagree with the former Vice President if he asserted the sky was blue. This was a clever trick by CNN: Rather than asking Americans about specific Obama policies (like, say, releasing Guantanamo detainees into the US with welfare), they use Cheney as the hook. Presto! Huge majorities think Obama is just fantastic on security matters. Everything’s peachy.
There is an effort afoot to marginalize and demoralize people who refuse to hop aboard the Good Ship Obama. Dishonest polling is one of many tools in the Left’s arsenal, but it’s especially effective because these surveys can actually warp how people perceive the nation’s mood. If a conservative were to catch in passing banner headlines proclaiming that 2/3 of the country approves of Obama’s job performance and nearly 3/4 find him strong on national security, he may understandably feel isolated and powerless. That’s the entire message implicit in these tactics–from the attack Rush strategy to DHS’ outrageous “Right-Wing” threat assessment: Pipe down, conservatives. You’re isolated, part of a hopelessly tiny minority, and possibly even dangerous. For the good of the country, keep your thoughts to yourselves.





Comments