Donald Trump’s Victory in Iowa All but Guaranteed If Polling History Is Any Guide

The Des Moines Register Iowa caucus poll has correctly predicted the caucus winner all but a handful of times since its launch in 1984.

So, if history is to be believed, former president Donald Trump is all but guaranteed to win the race this year. In a December NBC News/Des Moines Register poll, Trump notched support from 51 percent of likely Iowa caucus goers — the largest lead ever recorded in a competitive GOP primary five weeks out from the contest. Florida governor Ron DeSantis, Trump’s nearest rival, garnered just 19 percent support.

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Brittany Bernstein

Brittany Bernstein is the deputy news editor of National Review Online.

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The Des Moines Register Iowa caucus poll has correctly predicted the caucus winner all but a handful of times since its launch in 1984.

So, if history is to be believed, former president Donald Trump is all but guaranteed to win the race this year. In a December NBC News/Des Moines Register poll, Trump notched support from 51 percent of likely Iowa caucus goers — the largest lead ever recorded in a competitive GOP primary five weeks out from the contest. Florida governor Ron DeSantis, Trump’s nearest rival, garnered just 19 percent support.