Moody’s Investor Service reports that college closures will triple in the coming years, reports Inside Higher Ed.

That might not be as bad as it seems. Only five schools, on average, have closed per year during the past ten years. So, even if the number rises to 15, it will not cut much into the 4,000 or so (depending on how you count them) schools of higher education in the United States.

But still, colleges should be alert and undoubtedly are. IHE quotes Kent Chabotar, former president of Guilford College, and an acknowledged authority on higher education

There are fewer students out there. Of those students, fewer are attending colleges and universities. And it’s costing us more to get them in terms of financial aid.

IHE points out that many students are switching to public institutions, which are heavily subsidized and generally have lower tuition.

The most vulnerable institutions are the small private schools like Sweet Briar, which closed its doors only to reopen them, and the private HBCUs, some of which are faltering. Many administrators and trustees are watching these numbers, trying to figure out a survival strategy.