Glenn Harlan Reynolds’s most recent book, The Education Apocalypse: How It Happened and How to Survive It, predicts optimistically that technology will upend the education establishment. Reynolds believes that we’re seeing the beginning of an online revolution in higher education delivery.

But the Pope Center’s Jesse Saffron isn’t convinced. Recent evidence, he says, should make us wary of putting too much faith in online education.

In particular, he cites research published in the MIT Sloan Management Review:

Professor King and one of his colleagues tested Christensen’s disruption theory and, after two years of research, interviews with experts, and in-depth case study analysis, found that of the 77 major examples cited in Christensen’s books—involving companies such as Barnes & Noble and Kodak—only 9 percent meet all of Christensen’s theory’s criteria. The authors state that, at best, the theory “provides a generally useful warning about managerial myopia.” They conclude, however, that while “[stories] about disruptive innovation can provide [business managers with] warnings of what may happen…they are no substitute for critical thinking…[or] careful analysis.”

Traditional higher education institutions, it turns out, are more resilient than we expected. Saffron predicts that most will find ways to adapt to changing technology and remain successful.

Saffron makes a good case that we are seeing an evolution instead of a revolution.