Stephen Peter Rosen of Middle East Strategy at Harvard (MESH) argues the new National Intelligence Estimate has done nothing less than give Iran a green light to build nuclear weapons. He writes here that the NIE has ensured that there will be

no US or Israeli use of force for the foreseeable future. So the prediction is that warhead production activity has restarted, and will produce a useable gun-type design quickly. Given observable uranium enrichment activity, enough uranium will be available for one bomb in one year. It does not make sense for a country to test its first and only weapon when it has none in reserve to deter attacks. So the first test is not likely before two years from now or late 2009. (Foundation for Defense of Democracies)