Carol — I agree with you (and Heather Mac Donald) that populist anti-elitism too often turns into a jihad against the educated. By all means, academic ability is only one thing that can make a great person and a great leader, but it’s an important one for a president, especially when it comes to making sense of complicated issues and legislation. And of course you’re right that those with and those without college diplomas live side-by-side every day (though I think there’s a case to be made that this is decreasingly the case).

However, I’m not sure I agree that this is a bad strategy for the GOP, for two reasons. The first is that there are different kinds of people without college degrees, and the GOP will have more success wooing (and bringing to the polls) some of them than others. Those living in urban areas are disproportionately racial minorities, and are probably a bit to the left socially of their rural counterparts, so they’re unlikely to vote in large numbers for a Republican candidate. Those in rural areas, however, tend to be socially conservative but economically populist — they lean Republican but sometimes vote for Democrats who at least claim to respect their values. This makes them an important swing constituency worth significant and targeted effort. If you look at RealClearPolitics’s electoral map, you see that “Toss Up” states are ones where holding down (and increasing turnout from) rural areas will be important (Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri).

Two, again looking at the RealClearPolitics map, a lot of big cities are in states that aren’t in play. Republicans don’t care about New York, California, Illinois, etc. — there’s no way for them to win, so they have to focus on obtainable voters in toss-up states. This is, of course, a downside to the electoral-college system, but it’s one the GOP has to work with.

In short, rural states tend to be GOP states, states dominated by urban areas are safely in the Democrats’ hands, and in the remaining states Republicans have to target voters who are persuadable and increase turnout for friendly voters who are not. Those voters are, largely, blue-collar whites in rural areas.