Why students fail to graduate is not especially complicated. There are some schools with selective admissions, but most institutions in this country admit almost anyone with a high-school diploma. Many of them are simply utterly unprepared for college-level work.

It is not especially difficult to predict which ones might fail. Kansas State’s Office of Planning and Analysis breaks down retention and graduate by ACT score. A student with a score under 19 has a 30 to 35 percent chance of graduating; one with a 32 or higher has an 80 to 85 percent chance of graduating. And this summer I had a student with an 11 ACT show up in my office for advising.

On the other hand, 1 in 3 students with an ACT under 19 does manage to graduate, and it’s difficult to figure out in advance who that will be.

Dave Stone

Pickett Professor of Military History, KSU