The American Energy Alliance has a report out today that’s worth a read, estimating the cost of Obama’s six-month drilling moratorium (these numbers are based on the recently overturned moratorium that affected 33 deep-water wells, not the more extensive moratorium just issued by Secretary Salazar). The conclusion [PDF]:

The presidential moratorium will cost approximately $2.1 billion in economic loss to the Gulf states ($2.7 billion nationally), with some $487 millions to be expected in lost wages to employees ($707 million nationally) and in the neighborhood of eight-thousand lost jobs (12 thousand nationally), many in human capital intensive professional career fields. One key finding is the assessment of spill-over effects outside the affected regions in the Gulf of Mexico. I estimate a potential loss of $659 million in output, around four-thousand in jobs, and $219 million in lost wages due to spill-over effects that could permeate outside the affected states. The potential economic hardship will result in the loss of approximately $219 million in federal tax revenues and $98 million in state and local tax revenue. The lost revenues will directly affect the infrastructure of the region, including schools, health centers, and investment projects, substantially reducing the quality of life in local communities and nationwide. This potential loss comes in the wake of the continuing recession and financial crisis.
In summary, the current White House administration should consider a wide range of economic costs before enforcing the six-month moratorium on exploratory drilling. A blanket moratorium on deepwater drilling will cause economic hardship with substantial negative effects on jobs, wages, taxes, and other public revenues, adding to the struggles of local communities mired in recession. Further, the estimates in this paper may vastly underestimate the effects of the policy. For example, it is conceivable that oil rigs that leave the Gulf region because of the moratorium would not return after six months (Morgan Stanley believes the effects could continue for up to 12 to 18 months).
In closing, the present analysis is only meant to be a starting point for discussing the necessity that a cost benefit analysis should have on enacting the current moratorium on offshore drilling specifically, and future policies toward offshore drilling generally. Policy makers must consider unintended consequences before acting on imperfect information. The figures and tables that I produce are in no way an exact estimate of the economic effects of a six-month moratorium. Certain data limitations do not allow for a more refined analysis at this time, but the framework presented here provides the possibility for further study. Although there is likely to be a debate on the parameters and estimates put forth in my analysis, the point remains that economic costs need to be considered and investigated when evaluating the moratorium. Failing to weigh the costs of a policy decision against the potential benefits can cause more damage than the original safety concern itself.