This is destined to go down as a classic, naturally from (at least some of) the people who brought us Monty Python.

First came reports in the WSJ (bearing the accurate headline “UPDATE: EU ‘08 Emissions D[ow]n As Recession Takes Hold”) and Reuters, respectively, that carbon emissions from heavy industry and utilities in the EU fell 6 percent last year as the economic downturn slowed industrial activity in everything from construction to auto manufacturing, and that the ETS was at least 40 million tonnes short of carbon permits in 2008, the first time the scheme has registered a shortfall. Reuters noted that it is likely that the ETS will once again register a surplus of permits in 2009, raising questions about its effectiveness.

So I sent a caution to a particular list-serve that the usual suspects will soon make claims that the ETS is finally on track, has found its legs, etc, even though for its first three years the “certainty of emissions” (denoting reduced emissions, and to an amount certain) was in fact emission increases each year…even while economy-wide emissions managed to dip! It’s that distorting and subject to gaming.

Sure enough, out rushes the New York Times, gasping with a story “E.U. Carbon Trading System Shows Signs of Working.” Why, not stone dead? I guess it was resting, or stunned, or pining for the fjords. Beautiful plumage, though, isn’t it, squire?

As summarized by Climate Wire (and with my emphases added, so you don’t miss some of the finest spin around). You can just hear the success amid the wistful speculation!:

The European Union’s trading system for reducing carbon emissions is showing signs of working, according to a preliminary analysis released yesterday.
Emissions fell between 4 and 6 percent in 2008 among industries covered by the E.U. system, compared with increases of roughly 1 percent in 2007 and 2006, according to analysts who reviewed the figures.
Most of the decline was attributed to falling industrial and electricity production caused by the economic crisis, but analysts pointed out that the size of 2008’s decline showed the system was causing some businesses to be marginally cleaner.
“What we’re seeing today is that it is easier to meet the emissions targets in the short term because of lower economic activity in the world, but it doesn’t change the fact that carbon markets do work,” said Henrik Hasselknippe, head of carbon analysis at Point Carbon.

In the world of climate geekery, this is some rib-splitting stuff. Yes, real markets work but, no, dear friends, this . . . is an ex-parrot! Now, if it would only join the bleeding Choir Invisible, as opposed to flying over here.