Politico:

A handful of swing-state Democrats hold the cards when it comes to blocking the Obama administration’s climate change policies.
At least 56 senators next year are likely to support efforts to block the Environmental Protection Agency’s plans to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, a POLITICO analysis shows. That’s just short of the 60 they’d need to overcome a filibuster, but a slew of moderate Democrats facing re-election in 2012 could put that number within reach.
Democratic senators including Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Debbie Stabenow of Michigan and Jon Tester of Montana haven’t supported past efforts to stall climate rules, but they could change their minds with an eye on their 2012 races.
The GOP won gubernatorial races in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and flipped a dozen Democratic House seats last week.
“If you were Casey and Brown, I think you’d be thinking this would be something you’d have to look at,” said Ohio Coal Association President Mike Carey. “We are going to make sure that Ohioans understand how devastating this type of regulation … would be to their pocketbooks.”
Tester, a first-term Democrat from a state that backed Republican presidential candidate John McCain in 2008, could also be an easy pickup.

The rest here.