Charles Krauthammer says that the election this week is about competence. The issue is the president’s incompetence, demonstrated time and again, as well as a sinking feeling that the world is descending into chaos in the absence of respect for our country and its power.

“Competence theory” seems to be the attempt to separate off-year elections into those based on competence and those based on ideology. The elections in 1994 and 2010 were ideological — both centered on popular opposition to progressive moves to extend the welfare state through health-care “reform.” There was also an ideological assertion by the Republicans through Gingrich’s Contract with America in the first case and by the Tea Party in the other.

In 2006 and, allegedly, 2014, the election was mostly a reaction against the cluelessness and tyrannical misdeeds of the incumbent president and his party.

Like all theories that categorize, this one exaggerates. In my Georgia, for example, the Republicans are emphasizing issues such as Obamacare and amnesty, and the campaign is less about the president’s incompetence than his ideological aggressiveness. The problem is, from this view, that he proves to be altogether too competent in advancing his agenda.

Still, the categories make some sense in describing the general style of the opposition party’s campaigning. The Republicans, for the most part, are staying away from contentious issues, as the Democrats did in 2006. This time especially, the Republicans think that ideology alone would not lead them to victory, and “the tea-party moment” in the history of the party is largely over.

The Democrats’ campaign this time in the close races seem to have three pillars: (1) Distancing the candidate from the president, but generally not in a very specific way. (2) Mobilizing the base, beginning with black voters, in a way uncharacteristic of off-year elections. (3) Adding unmarried women with children to that base by calling attention to the ways in which Republicans in power would allegedly threaten their health and personal freedom. The Democratic goal is to keep the “libertarian securitarians” on their side. One sign they might be failing is that young libertarian securitarians seem considerably more likely to vote Republican this time than last, thinking of the Democrats as a greater threat to their economic security. And the turnout among the still largely Democratic young will probably be way off, because the innovating charm of Obama has worn off.

For Krauthammer, the reason we can’t be sure that the Republicans will take the Senate is that the polls might be a bit off in most of those close races. The reason: Democrats might be doing a better job in getting their base out to vote, and the polls wouldn’t pick that up. His thought here is that the Republicans might end up victimized (as in 2012) by their own comparative incompetence. Stuff the polls don’t pick up is typically the illusory hope of the party about to lose (think 2012 and most conservative pundits), but in this case, given the deficit of issues and the enthusiasm among lots of voters, the turnout does seem more uncertain than usual.

We have to add, of course, that the Republicans are, in fact, incompetent if they become complacent in a victory that came from an electorate something like the one that showed up in 2010. That doesn’t mean that they have clue about how to win with the larger and less white and male turnout of 2016. A big reason that the Democrats won’t be chastised all that much by a defeat this time is that they assume they get the Senate and the presidency back next time. Unless the Republicans pick up 54 or so seats this this time, it is hard to see how they hold on to the Senate next time. And the Democrats will have a fresh presidential candidate unsaddled with Obama’s baggage.

It would be great if an election really did focus on competence. For example, in our country 70 percent of our young people are now unfit for military service If it weren’t for the comparatively honorable and violent South, we wouldn’t have nearly the number of recruits need for our downsized armed forces.

Our middle class really is failing, and one result is a crisis of competence among most of our young. A small percentage of our secondary schools continue to get better, while most of them continue to get worse. The proposed remedy: Try to get everyone to graduate from college! That means we have to focus our energy on transforming college into a vehicle for ensuring workplace competence. And the focus on demonstrable competencies at the expense of anything higher is actually making our colleges more incompetent in achieving their historic missions. Okay, I will add that self-indulgent political correctness is one reason why our colleges have been falling short of competence, why there are studies that show that a college education gives too many students no “value added” in terms of marketable skills over four years. But it’s not only political correctness! The main reason for value not being added is the proliferation of techno-lite majors that don’t even pretend to aid students in developing flexible cognitive skills. But I digress.

Don’t forget, though: Elections used to turn on not only competence and ideology. It was once thought that the greatest of these standards is character.