It’s getting easier for me to say that Trump won’t be nominated. And harder not to say I told you so.

For one thing, Trump’s been goofier than ever. But that’s not the main piece of data to consider today. As Nate Silver points out, those who bet on elections have reduced Trump’s chances, but still peg him the favorite. They also think that it’s now likely going to be a contested convention. The bettors are contradicting themselves. There’s no way Trump can win after the first ballot. Lots of the delegates pledged to him now will bolt once unbound.

So Nate says that, for Trump, it’s first ballot or bust. That means bust. And almost surely Cruz, who is outwitting Trump and everyone else on the delegate-selection front. Cruz has an at least 75 percent chance of being nominated.

Our friend Henry Olsen’s scheme of a Cruz–Kasich cartel carving out spheres of influence was cited favorably by the New York Times. Both the New York Times and Henry, of course, hope for a convention that won’t nominate what the newspaper calls a ”dangerously ignorant” or “dangerously reactionary” nominee.

Cruz and Kasich shouldn’t waste much time or treasure attacking each other, though. Each candidate should present himself as a safe and self-controlled alternative to Trump. Let them learn from the ridiculous war between Bush and Rubio that killed them both.

I just explained why that a ”never Trump” alliance isn’t necessary to keep Trump from being nominated. Cruz is certainly more aware of that than ever. I will add, as I have before, that “never Trump” is not a candidate, and the alliance would sap some energy out of the campaigns of both Cruz and Kasich. It’s also sort of undemocratic.

Let voters everywhere have the maximum conceivable choice, which isn’t, after all, exactly huge.

Let Cruz be Cruz, and Kasich be Kasich. Each guy makes a good case for himself. Let me remind you that the case for Kasich is that studies show he’s the one most likely to actually win in November. The case for Cruz as the one and only real conservative is the one that will almost surely prevail at the convention, largely because he will have so many loud and proud delegates and a surprising number of closeted ones.

Finally, for our Democratic friends or for those who place down bets, Sanders still has a maybe 15 percent of being nominated. Ignore the delegate count. Bernie’s in if he wins in New York and California. Unlikely? Sure. Possible? He’s only down 12 percent and surging in the latest New York study.