When looking at what kind of gains Republicans can hope to make, it might be helpful to look at presidential job approval the last two times there were Republican gains at the expense of sitting Democratic president.

According to Real Clear Politics, President Obama’s average job approval rating is currently 41.6% and his disapproval rating is 53.4%. On this date in 2010, Obama’s average job approval was 45.4% and his disapproval was 48.7%.

There was no Real Clear Politics in 1994, so I went to the Roper Center and created my own Fake Opaque Politics job approval average for Clinton by averaging the polls from October 1, 1994 – October 19, 1994. I came up with an average approval rating of 44.16% and a disapproval rating of 48.16%.

Obama is now noticeably less popular (or perhaps better to say more widely unpopular) than was the Democratic incumbent in either of the last two Republican wave midterm elections. The median voter in a lot of states is someone who thinks that Obama is doing a bad job, and my guess is that the remaining undecided voters are looking for an excuse to pick the GOP senatorial candidate. That is why I still think the Republicans are going to have one heck of a good night in the Senate.

On the other hand, can you imagine what kind of bloodbath 1994 would have been if Clinton had Obama’s current numbers? Even though the GOP should win the close races, why is it more plausible that the Democrats will gain a Senate seat (or two, or three) in a state that Romney won, than that the Republicans will pick up a seat in a state that Obama won?

Something not-quite-right is going on here. If you have a combination of very favorable circumstances + candidates running play-it-safe campaigns, you shouldn’t be sweating out Georgia and Kansas. A Republican “wave” built on picking up eight seats in Romney states (and barely holding on to a couple of others in Romney states) would give the Republicans an excuse to ignore how limited their appeal seems to be in statewide races even under what should be favorable circumstances.