For another channel, I’ve written my explanation of what happened on the Republican side. It doesn’t display (with one exception) my predictive powers, which, as you’ve seen, need substantial remedial work.

One prediction I made and should have stayed with: A brokered convention is hugely unlikely under the current system. Experience should have been my unwavering guide. The sequential arrangement of the primaries and caucuses winnowed (as usual) the large number of candidates down to two. And then one, driven by the momentum of timely victories, overwhelmed the other.

The odd thing, as I explain, is that once again the candidate who was perceived to be more moderate won. In this case, however, moderate can be distinguished from mainstream or even civilized.

It might be hard to remember, but Cruz, for a good while, was confident that he would have the momentum to win on the first ballot. He was thinking more clearly then than he was near the end about what he needed to do to win.

Still, everyone knows the nomination of Trump was not a normal outcome. As Pete has explained, it’s a mistake to believe that the Trump deviation has legs enough to become the Republican new normal. Cruz isn’t the party’s future either. Who or what is?

At this point, I think the wisdom of experience is kicking in about the futility of organizing a really competitive third party at this point. Still worth trying, but with very modest expectations.

And we can’t forget, if we tell the truth, how marginalized the “national security” wing of the party is now. That’s the place from which most of the energy for generating an acceptable alternative is coming.

Peter is right not to let us forget that neither Paul Ryan nor Mitt Romney has adjusted to the new realities. I feel their pain. Facilitating economic growth and hawkish interventionism (or even a more diffuse hawkishness) and representing the concerns of social conservatives didn’t work this year. Cruz’s anti-immigration add-on didn’t make all that much difference. Well, it was enough of a difference to take Rubio out.

American really, really wants to get beyond Clinton and Bush. Truth to tell, probably more Bush(es) than Clinton(s). But still both.

Michael Brendan Dougherty has explained that the cruel choice between Trump and Hillary Clinton is exactly what our decadent and self-hating nation deserves. It is a huge punishment for our sins, for which we wallow in guilt.

I actually think that’s not true, although the Republicans at this point have more reason to repent big-time if they want to be saved. They’re not going to be saved this year.