When looking at the 2014 competitive Senate races, I just can’t get past Obama’s disapproval rating. It is currently 53.8% and I strongly suspect it is that high or higher in the states with competitive races. At this point in 2010, Obama’s RCP average disapprove number was 50.2%. So the numbers are a little worse than in the bad-for-Democrats year of 2010. To get over the hump, Democratic candidates in tough races are going to have to win over quite a few voters who think Obama is doing a bad job. That makes for a favorable playing field for the Republican candidates.

It is possible for a Democratic Senate candidate to win with such electorate. A Democratic candidate might have a strong personal brand (including a preexisting bond with independents who are hostile to the president) and a safe distance for the president’s policy agenda. That was Joe Manchin’s ticket to winning. Even a candidate with a weak personal brand and who is tied to the president’s agenda can win if the Republican opponent is repellant to swing voters. That was Harry Reid’s path to victory. But in how many of the current toss up Senate races do either of these situations attain? The environment is shaping up for narrow GOP wins in the vast majority of the currently close races.

I can think of several caveats:

1. I don’t see it in the numbers, but the Obama disapproval feels “soft” to me. The conservative opposition doesn’t seem to be as energized as in 2010. The right-of-center feeling about Obama seems more smoldering than incandescent. By this time in 2006, swing voters had turned on Bush, and were absolutely not going to give him another chance, or listen to what he has to say. I don’t think that swing voters have given up on Obama.

2. To the extent that Obama’s rising disapproval rating is tied to the perception that he is weak and that he is jeopardizing American interests abroad, visible victories against ISIS/ISIL might help bring down his disapproval numbers and give Senate Democrats a slightly more favorable electorate.