So I’m the host of a conference on the neglected 19th-century American Catholic thinker Orestes Brownson.

It’s been taking up all my time — in a good way.

Still, I have the moment to give you a campaign update.

First off, I agree with everything Peter Spiliakos has to say about the content of the campaign.

I also agree, of course, that Trump’s performance in the debate last Thursday was that of a choke artist or meltdown guy. Cruz was relentless in calling him to account. And Rubio was a bit subdued or more by comparison.

In general, I’m doubling down on my prediction that Trump won’t be nominated, and I’m more certain than is reasonable (perhaps) that he’s fading as I write.

Cruz will clearly win in Kansas and maybe almost everywhere else today. All small-fry states, but still.

Rubio has, according to a reliable poll, come within 5% of Trump in Florida. Cruz’s intention, he’s made clear, is to make sure Rubio doesn’t win his home state. He never agreed to any bleepin’ anti-Trump alliance. His intention remains to take Rubio out first and then work his way to a majority by being the only alternative to Trump. He accepts the risk that he may, by handing Trump Florida, help Donald get nominated. My guess is he doesn’t think that risk is all that great right now, and that he’s on the way to avoiding a brokered convention. If so, he may be suffering from overconfidence for the second time I know about. We’ll see.

These observations confirm what I said before: All those who were writing about the anti-Trump alliance among the three candidates not named Trump to deprive that huge evildoer of the nomination were giving bad advice and had no idea about how politics works.