The real value in the Elbert Guillory ad depends on whether you see is as an example of a workable strategy or as one of many steps toward developing a plausible center-right communications strategy for winning over persuadable nonwhite voters. If conservatives embrace the Guillory ad as an early stage in a trial and error process, the ad might be of great historical importance. If conservatives see the ad as an example of a strategy they should follow, then Elbert Guillory will represent just another false hope and false start among failed conservative attempts to make inroads among nonwhite voters.

The Guillory ad powerfully makes a point that even many Democratic voters can see – that Democratic governance has fallen short of reasonable expectations. The ad also has some powerful dramatic elements that are missing from most other commercials from right-leaning outfits. The explanation of public choice theory and the kicker at last thirty seconds are so are very well done. That about exhausts the ad’s virtues. It is an affecting story that doesn’t go anywhere.

The ad has problems both in what it has and in what it lacks. The line about scrounging food stamps to buy Kool-Aid is obnoxious, but it also points to a deeper risk in how conservatives talk to persuadable nonwhites. You can only get away with something like that Kool-Aid line if you already have a strong connection to a constituency and they are inclined to cut you a lot of slack. Then again, maybe a line like that blows up in your face even in front of a friendly audience. It’s all downside risk. In any case, Republicans have no such pre-existing good will among Democratic-voting nonwhites, and Republicans need to take great care that they don’t give this constituency another reason to dismiss the GOP.

What the ad lacks is a negative message that links the difficulties in people’s lives, or violations of voters’ deeply held values to policies supported by the national Democratic Party. Vague stuff about the welfare state isn’t going to get it done. Democrats are putting us on the path to raising your taxes and killing ever more jobs. That might work. The national Democrats are supporters of killing late-term fetuses at-will. That might work. The stuff about Democrats living in mansions and not caring about you now has some meaningful context.

One last thing that is less about the ad than some of the response I have read to the ad (and to some things I have heard here and there from stray conservatives about the Herman Cain and Alan Keyes presidential campaigns). Republicans and conservative activists should not be narrowcasting a message to nonwhite voters about rejecting rampant statism, embracing entrepreneurship, reconstructing the family, etc. In the medium term, the relevant nonwhite audience for conservatives already believes that government is somewhat too big, taxes somewhat too much, favors restricting late-term abortion, and yet voted for Obama’s reelection. This audience does not include the median African American or Latino voter, but it still includes a lot of people. If Republicans can’t win over this group, then it is a fantasy to try to win over nonwhite voters who have left-of-center policy preferences. Let’s learn to walk before we try out for the Olympic gymnastics team.

Let’s learn to work within the common ground between the existing Republican base and those right-leaning nonwhite Obama voters. That common ground does not include flat taxes, tax cuts on high-earners, 9-9-9 boondoggles, over the top condemnations of the welfare state, or praying in the direction of the Reagan library. This common ground might include a parent friendly tax reform and a market-oriented version of health insurance coverage expansion that saves the government money and lowers health insurance premiums. Instead of telling people to embrace smaller government and family values, adopt a set of policies that make it easier for people to live out those values at a lower cost to the government than what the Democrats are offering. You might win over the people who already agree with you on policy. And who knows? You might even change a few minds.