Reveille 10/20/14

Good morning.

Before we hit the links, I need to get something off my chest:

It’s important to differentiate between exciting postseason games and an exciting postseason. There’s no doubt that most of the contests played to date have been must-see TV. When not one of the six postseason series played so far have lasted more than one game above the minimum length, however, it’s clear that fans have been denied the latter. Four nights will have passed in between the national anthems being played, cracks of the bat, and strikes three getting called.

There’s no one to blame, of course, but this is the obvious downside when the NLCS lasts a mere five games and ALCS features a sweep. /rant

Anyway, here are several links from the past week that will make your Monday at the office a bit more bearable:​

• What have been the worst commercials of the postseason to date? SB Nation’s Grant Brisbee offers up a hint:

4. Craig. Craig. Craig. Craig. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG. CRAIG.​

• David Schoenfield of ESPN’s SweetSpot has a look at the bullpens of the Giants and Royals. As for the former, he reminds readers that the San Francisco bullpen is formidable in its own right. As for Kansas City’s troika of lights-out relievers, he attempts to find their respective Achilles’ heel. For example, here’s what Schoenfield has to say about Kelvin Herrera:

How to attack Herrera? He almost always throws a fastball on the first pitch — 89 percent of the time, saving his changeup and occasional curveball after he gets ahead in the count. Batters have hit .387 when putting the first pitch in play. Trouble is, opponents know to be aggressive against Herrera, as he has the highest first-pitch swing percentage of any pitcher on the Kansas City staff. It’s easy to say “swing at the first pitch,” but harder to execute when it’s a 99 mph fastball up and in or up and away.

Herrera had a gopherball problem last year when he allowed nine home runs through July. It looks like that was primarily an issue of location: more fastballs down the middle. Compared to 2013, his fastball location has gone to the upper corner of the zone.

So the best bet is to be aggressive early in the count and hope Herrera leaves one of those heaters down in the zone. Lefties did fare a little better against him, which could help the Giants as six of their eight position players hit from the left side (or switch-hit).

• Over at Gas Lamp Ball, “TheThinGwynn” puts together a roster of players consisting of those who played for both World Series entrants. Among the names listed is Friend of NRO Bob Tufts, who pitched for the Giants in 1981 and Royals for the next two seasons.
• Gammons Daily’s David Golebiewski shows how dealing soon-to-be free agent Zack Greinke to the Angels in 2010 paid enormous dividends for the Royals.
• Orioles fans have every right to be disappointed at how the season ended but Marc Normandin of SB Nation advises to look at the bright side:

The good news is that they don’t need to add much of anything that’s both new and expensive, and they can always designate a reliever for assignment or decline an option if they think they have enough depth but need a couple of million to work with. They won 96 games without a half-decent Chris Davis, with half-a-season of Machado, with a month of Matt Wieters, and with Ubaldo Jimenez making 22 starts. The 2015 Orioles need less Ubaldo and more of the other three, and things should work themselves out from there.

The rest of the AL East is in a similar state, to a degree. The Yankees need the hundreds of millions they spent on free agents a year ago to mean something, and they could also use a little more of the old Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia in their lives. The Blue Jays need to fill holes both from within and externally, but that’s been the story with them for decades: they’re a real, honest-to-goodness divisional threat once they manage that feat, if they manage it. The Red Sox and Rays were both teams with loads of talent that produced losing seasons for a variety of reasons, but if the Sox fill their rotation holes and the Rays find some hitters, both will be worthwhile opponents for the Orioles. The Orioles have their own questions going forward, but Baltimore is the most complete of all the AL East teams at the moment in spite of that.

• Baseball Prospectus​’s Zachary Levine answers a reader’s mind-bending question posed after NLCS Game 3: “If Yadi [Molina] can do everything at close to 100% but swinging would kill him, do you start him and just instruct him to take at the plate?”
• Teams should work on their sluggers striking out less onlynif they are certain it’s not going to detrimentally affect these player’s overall output, according to Doug from High Heat Stats.
• While “D.R.,” writing in the Economist, admits that analytics-driven, front-office executives like Billy Beane of the A’s and Andrew Friedman, now with the Dodgers, have “impressively managed to stay a few steps ahead of their rivals,” he still believes they are being overvalued on balance.

That’s it. Have a walk-off week!