David Leonhardt, writing at the Economix blog, observes that average hourly pay increased in July and August, an indication that productivity gains are being passed on to workers. Yet he also suspects that because workers are absorbing a larger share of the costs associated with medical care, the gains might be illusory:
What may now be happening is that companies have decided to pass health costs directly onto workers. That leaves companies more money to pay rises but, in the end, doesn’t help workers very much.
This is just a hypothesis for now. The federal government’s best-known survey on wages and benefits — the Employment Cost Index — shows that the total value of employee benefits, including health benefits, has continued to rise throughout the recession. In fact, it increased a little faster than hourly pay did from the end of 2007 until this spring (which is the most recent figure available). That suggests productivity and inflation are the main explanation for rising wages.
But I’d bet the shifting burden of health costs is playing a role.
This, of course, could strengthen the case for an approach that combines consumer-driven health plans and publicly-sponsored protection against catastrophic expenditures, as Avik has outlined.






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