Ezra writes:
Yesterday, I asked Reihan Salam to give some evidence for his claim that there is โa broad consensusโ among conservatives and โlarge numbers of Republican lawmakersโ that Congress should pass further state and local aid measures. According to Reihan, the only holdup was that Republicans wanted the aid to be contingent on states developing fiscally sound long-term budgets. As soon as Democrats endorsed that, it would be all systems go.
But when asked to name some legislation, Reihan didnโt come up with much. โThat is the basic idea behind Sen. Scott Brownโs Fiscally Responsible Relief for Our States Act,โ Reihan said. But Brownโs proposal โ a proposal from one of the most moderate Republicans who is representing one of the most liberal states in the union โ doesnโt have any co-sponsors, so itโs hard to see how it represents a consensus.
I can see why Ezra doesnโt share my perspective on this, but here it is: the fact that congressional Democrats in 2005 didnโt offer alternative legislative language for Social Security reform does not mean that all congressional Democrats opposed some kind of reform for Social Security. Many congressional Democrats accepted the idea of some kind of Social Security reform โ lifting the earnings cap, adjusting the retirement age, etc. โ yet offering a legislative alternative was a move fraught with political downsides and no imaginable political upside.
I also think โthe only holdupโ line is something Ezra is attributing to me โ there are many holdups, including intense mutual distrust that goes beyond partisan gamesmanship.
Iโll also note that I used a number of โescape hatchesโ in my original post, e.g., what constitutes a โlarge numberโ? And what does it mean to support the idea in principle? I never would have made the claim that congressional Republicans have actually proposed legislation along these lines โ which Ezra considers the relevant test โ as thatโs not the hallmark of the Republican congressional minority, with the exception of Reps. Paul Ryan and Devin Nunes and, in the Senate, Tom Coburn and perhaps Scott Brown.
Do I believe that a large number of Republican lawmakers would endorse โcash-for-cutsโ as an alternative to unconditional grants to the states? Yes. I also think it would have to be part of a broader proposal that didnโt increase overall spending and that reduced the tax burden. I do not consider this a realistic approach, which is why Republican Hill staffers arenโt rushing to draft legislation along these lines. Yet my conversations with staffers and other policymakers suggest that a large number of Republican lawmakers are open to the idea of countercyclical aid to the states in theory. They just canโt imagine congressional Democrats crafting a workable compromise.
Itโs hard for me to imagine a universe in which a majority congressional Democrats would endorse both a tough โcash-for-cutsโ proposal and back ARRA and PPACA.
I will happily acknowledge, however, that I canโt read the minds of Republican lawmakers, which is why I focus on policy rather than legislative strategy.






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