Like many, I had figured that one of the reasons that Virginia was so competitive this year was because the demographics of the state were changing, and that the balance of population and power was tipping in favor of Northern Virginia, and that that was where the new voters were coming from…

But it turns out that in the counties where Kerry won more than 50 percent of the vote in 2004, 71,466 new voters have registered.

In counties where Kerry won between 40 percent and 50 percent of the vote, 104,805 new voters have registered.

And in counties where Kerry won less than 40 percent of the vote – Bush country – an eye-opening 109,243 new voters have registered.

Now… these newly-registered folks might very well be Democrats; plenty of Democrats live in deep red counties, and vice versa. And, as Brian Schaffner notes, “some counties that went for Bush in 2004 may very well go for Obama in 2008 and the Obama campaign may also be registering large numbers of new voters in heavily Republican counties.” Maybe Bush’s 2004 campaign was uniquely strong in the non-Northern parts of the state.

I was also surprised to learn that “in 2004, the DC suburbs in Northern Virginia accounted for 32.4 percent of all registered voters in the state; now, that same area accounts for 32.8 percent of the state’s registered voters. There is no doubt that the growth in Northern Virginia is dramatic, but it takes time to substantially change the demographic and political balance in a state as large as Virginia. Thus, Northern Virginia accounts for just a slightly larger share of the state’s electorate than it did four years ago.”