Anybody Expect Virginia’s Voters To Break 45 Percent Democrat, 31 Percent Republican on Election Day?

On Election Day in Virginia, I wouldn’t be surprised if more Democrats show up to the polls than Republicans.

But like Beyond the Polls, I have doubts that recent polling in Virginia is accurately representing who is going to show up on the first Tuesday in November.

For example, the Survey USA poll has 39% Democrats, 30% Republicans and 25% Independents. The Suffolk poll has 45% Democrats, 31% Republicans and 24% Independents/Unaffiliated voters. Neither poll is close to historic party ID in Virgina: The 2004 electorate was 39% Republican, 35% Democrat, and 26% Independent. This changed little in 2006, when the Allen-Webb electorate was 39% Republican, 36% Democratic, and 26% Independents.

In the best year for Democrats since 1974, with a uniquely well-positioned candidate in Jim Webb and running against a uniquely pooly-positioned candidate in George Allen, the Democrat beat the Republican by less than one percent.

An Obama win in Virginia? Yes, that’s quite possible. An Obama win by 12 percent, as Suffolk currently shows? If you believe that, you’re smoking something besides the commonwealth’s tobacco products.