The Christian Science Monitor, today:

For a senator who consistently gets 80 percent approval ratings from Arizonans, it seems strange, bizarre even, that John McCain would not be a shoo-in to win his home state in November’s presidential election. Some in-state analysts say chances are fair, in fact, that Arizona will end up in the Democratic column. A big part of the uncertainty may be that the Republican Party’s presumptive nominee has not distanced himself enough from the Bush administration to satisfy the one-third of state voters who are independents. But Senator McCain has also seen his support erode among Arizona’s avid Bush supporters and social conservatives, for not backing the president on issues dear to their hearts. Toss in the resources and clout of Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano, who will be pulling hard for her party’s nominee, and anything can happen… The latest Rocky Mountain Poll, conducted before Democrats settled on Sen. Barack Obama as their candidate, shows McCain winning Arizona over the Illinois senator by 11 percentage points.

McCain’s lead in the past four polls cited on Pollster.com: 11 percent, 9 percent, 20 percent, and 22 percent. The former two are registered voters, the latter two are likely voters.

Can we expect a story every time McCain gets within 11 points in a blue state?