HILTON HEAD ISLAND, S.C. — Fresh off declaring Barack Obama’s potential presidency a “crapshoot,” former president Bill Clinton will be in Columbia today addressing the state’s New Democrats.

This state has gotten much, much closer in recent weeks, with the RCP average shrinking to 2.2 percent. It seems safe to say that if Hillary loses in Iowa and New Hampshire, this state won’t provide much of a firewall for her.

So, if you’re Bill Clinton, and you need to tear down the first major African-American presidential candidate in a state where the Democratic party is largely African-American, how do you do it? And what’s more, how do you do it before an audience of New Democrats, largely more centrist and less liberal than your average African-American voter?

If Bill Clinton contends Obama is too liberal, he’ll win the room but it may not be the right message for the rest of the state. If he contends Obama is too compromising and centrist, the message will probably play well in local television and papers, but will probably be the wrong message for the room.

Today calls for a balancing act that we haven’t seen from Bill Clinton lately. Instead, we’ve seen a guy claiming to have opposed the Iraq war from the start, a guy who complains that the media isn’t covering his wife fairly, and a guy who doesn’t merely contend his wife’s opponent is inexperienced – he has to evoke a bunch of guys playing dice on the corner. (What, no three card monte metaphor?)