Another note on early voting . . .

Mike Allen’s morning newsletter reports:

DSCC Chairman Robert Menendez will be out today with an “Early Vote Data” memo asking, “Where’s the Surge?” “In fact, to the contrary, in key Senate races, we are seeing encouraging signs for Democrats. . . . RAW BALLOTS: Democrats have cast more ballots [than Republicans] in West Virginia, California, and Nevada and we know from our targeting that likely Democratic voters have cast more ballots than likely Republican voters in Illinois, Wisconsin, and Washington. . . . In short, we believe these races remain very close and will stay competitive through election day.

Menendez must hope no one goes back and looks at voter-registration statistics for those states. Because once you look at them, you realize that if the situation had reversed, i.e., if more Republicans had cast ballots than Democrats in West Virginia, California, and Nevada, then we could probably declare winners in those races already.

As of 2008, West Virginia has 675,305 registered Democrats and 353,437 registered Republicans, a 55 percent to 29 percent split. Yet McCain won the state. So a voter’s registered party identity and his vote in any given race don’t always align.

According to the most recent figures, California has 7,531,986 registered Democrats and 5,257,669 registered Republicans, a 44.3 percent to 30.9 percent split.

According to the most recent figures, Nevada has 588,970 Democrats and 484,791 Republicans, a 42.7 percent to 35.1 percent split.

There ought to be more Democratic early votes in these states than Republican votes; the Democrats have a larger pool of registered voters to choose from in their early efforts. Yet in West Virginia, registered Republicans made up 35 percent of the early votes, about 6 percent above their share of registered voters as a whole. In Nevada, according to GMU’s data, the two parties are running about even statewide. Neither one is a particularly good omen for Democrats.