Lots of talk on XM POTUS and elsewhere emphasizing how this is not a referendum on Obama. Silly, just as it’s silly to insist the elections are solely reflective of Obama. The strengths and weaknesses of McDonnell and Deeds and Corzine and Christie and Hoffman and Owens are big factors as well, as are the state and region’s economy, and the presence of factors like Daggett and Scozzafava, etc.

So how much of the atmosphere of these races reflects on Obama? I’d put it at 20 to 30 percent, although I could see the argument as higher.

If Bush were still president, Corzine would be declaring victory right now. If Obama’s approval rating were 70 percent, Deeds would be competitive. Doug Hoffman has pretty explicitly made his campaign a referendum on Pelosi and the actions of the Democratic House, as has Harmer in California.

Today’s races weren’t just about Obama, but it’s silly to watch the MSM insist that a pretty good night for Republicans has nothing to do with him.