Charlie Cook:

It is difficult, if not impossible, to see how Democrats could lose the Senate this year. But they have a 50-50 chance of ending up with fewer than 55 seats in the next Congress. As for the House, we at The Cook Political Report are still forecasting that Democrats will lose only 20 to 30 seats. Another half-dozen or more retirements in tough districts, however, perhaps combined with another party switch or two, would reduce Democrats’ chances of holding the House to only an even-money bet.

A six-seat gain in the Senate would be pretty darn terrific. I figure the most likely flips would be North Dakota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Colorado, and Arkansas. I think the GOP keeps open seats in Florida, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Ohio.

Then I look at the list of flipped Democratic seats and wonder, hey, what about Delaware, California, or Connecticut? And that list doesn’t even include Massachusetts . . .