Alaska has a reputation for being particularly difficult to poll — far flung, more cell-phone only households — but some analysts argue that its reputation for defying pollsters’ final results is overstated.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Begich must be hoping that the state’s election results defy the polling trend, because he hasn’t led a public poll since early August:

The NRA rated Begich an A- … and has chosen to not endorse in this race. Good news for Republican Dan Sullivan.