Remember in late September when Democrats were giddy and Republicans were despondent over “the early-voting totals”? Even though only about 2,000 ballots had been returned in Iowa and North Carolina? Even though about 1 million votes will be cast in Iowa’s statewide races, and about 2 million in North Carolina’s? You may recall my observation, “This is kind of like that moment a half-hour or so after the polls close, when a handful of precincts have reported, and some people freak out with 1 percent of the vote counted.”

A couple weeks later, the outlook for Republicans is considerably brighter. University of Florida professor Michael McDonald tracks the data and sees Republicans rapidly making up ground and catching up with Democrats in Iowa . . .

. . . and Republicans have now caught up in North Carolina:

This does not mean Republicans are certain to win the high-profile Senate races in these states; polling still shows an exceptionally tight race in Iowa and a slight lead for Senator Kay Hagan in North Carolina. But it confirms that it’s silly to draw a conclusion about who’s going to win based upon the registered party affiliation of the first few thousand absentee ballots returned.