Color me skeptical that eleventh-hour scandals or news stories have a significant impact on Election Day.

Yes, we all recall the revelation of President George W. Bush’s DUI in the final days before the 2000 election. But that was a particularly effective “October Surprise”: Americans want to feel a sense of connection and trust with their president, and learning that Bush’s past drinking problem had had more serious consequences — and that he had not shared this with the public — shook just enough voters to turn the 2000 election in the overtime drama it was.

In the past day or two, we’ve seen new stories about the possibility that North Carolina Democrat Kay Hagan and her family improperly benefited from stimulus spending, and contending that New Hampshire Democrat Jeanne Shaheen is more directly tied to the IRS scandal than previously thought.

In theory, a story like this suggesting that Hagan and Shaheen aren’t just partisan hacks but corrupt and/or vindictive may energize Republican voters a bit. But let’s face it, how many Republican voters in a state like New Hampshire or North Carolina, after months and months of a hard-fought campaign and fortunes’ worth of political advertising, weren’t fired up before these stories? Considering the administration’s record, previous scandals, policies, and these senators’ lockstep support of the president, Republicans in these states should be more fired up than the Human Torch.

How many independents will decide based on something like this? How many were certain to vote, yet still undecided, and will be motivated to vote for Tillis or Brown because of these stories?

Having said that, the polls in Oregon did detect a slight shift away from the Democratic incumbent governor John Kitzhaber after scandals surrounding his fiancée — but Democrats may be more eager to express disapproval by responding to a pollster than through their actual vote.

One big reason that an eleventh-hour scandal or revelation can’t make a huge impact is early voting. Already 1.1 million voters in North Carolina have cast their ballots; New Hampshire does not have early voting.