Hmmm.

October 29, 2004:

Among 16 percent of Florida voters who said they had cast early ballots [to Quinnipiac], Kerry received 56 percent of those compared to Bush’s 39 percent.

October 28, 2008:

Democrats are beaming that their party is outperforming the Republicans in early voting, releasing numbers Wednesday that show registrants of their party ahead 54 percent to 30 percent among the 1.4 million voters who have gone to the polls early.
A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll gave McCain a 49-45 lead over Democrat Barack Obama among Floridians who have already voted.
And Republicans continued to show a traditional strength, leading 50 percent to the Democrats’ 30 percent in the 1.2 million absentee ballots already returned.
Conducted Oct. 25-27, the Los Angeles Times poll gave Obama a 50-47 lead overall in Florida. Only a tiny fraction of the Florida respondents reported voting early, leaving McCain’s lead subject to a wide margin of error. A Quinnipiac University poll, released Wednesday, showed early voters favoring Obama 58-34, another small sample with a potentially wide margin of error.

Kerry led the early voting in Florida by a wide margin… and ended up losing by 5 percent. Depending on which poll you look at, Obama either leads early voting by a wide margin… or he trails by a bit.

Hmmmm.