If this poll is accurate, Hillary’s in real trouble in Texas: Obama 48, Hillary 42.

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among self-described Democrats 47 percent to 42 percent. Obama leads Clinton among self-described independents and Republicans 24 percent to 71 percent.

One of my readers, Theodore, makes the case that to stay alive in the delegate race, Hillary needs to not only win, but win big:

Actually, the poll showing Hillary leading by Obama by 8 points in Texas is NOT good news for her.
Ignoring for the moment super delegates and the potentially destructive fights over Florida and Michigan, she needs 59% of the delegates from the states that have not yet chosen delegates in order to take the lead among the crucial PLEDGED delegates. (She can win without leading among the pledged delegates, but only by going ugly on Florida/Michigan and the superdelegates. In order to win pretty, she needs to have more pledged delegates than he does without Florida or Michigan. As noted, the only way she gets there is to get 59% of the delegates from the states that have not yet chosen.)
(To explain this math a bit more, according to RCP, Obama has 1133 pledged delegates and she has 995. There are 790 delegates assigned to states that have not yet chosen their delegates. Ignoring the potential issue of delegates from states that have already chosen but have not been assigned, she needs to get just a tick under 59% of the delegates yet to be chosen to catch up.)
While every state does it somewhat differently, an 8 point win does not translate into a 59% share of the delegates. She won California by 10 points and got 55% of the delegates. She won New York by 17 points and got 60% of the delegates… While it is possible that an 8 point win in Texas gets her to 59% of the delegates, it seems unlikely.
In fact, looking over the other states, Texas is a place where she probably needs to EXCEED not just match the 59% threshold. A lot of the states yet to choose delegates are not good states for her. Mississippi and North Carolina with large black populations are the kind of states that Obama has thumped her in. The latte drinkers in Oregon are not her kind of voters either. He has been doing well so far in states similar to Montana, Wyoming and South Dakota, although that could change.
The bottom line is that in order to win the pledged delegate contest she almost certainly must do better than a 60/40 split of the delegates chosen in Texas (which has more delegates to be chosen than any other state left on the board).

I would just note that I don’t think the Clintons have any fear or second thoughts about “winning ugly” if that’s what it will take.