Florida’s governor’s race is probably going to come down to the wire. This morning, Quinnipiac puts Republican Rick Scott barely ahead of Democrat Alex Sink, 45–44; at the beginning of the month, Scott had a 49–43 lead. That movement may not be statistically significant, but there are a bunch of ominous numbers in this poll for Scott:

Ms. Sink’s surge could be tied to voter belief, 44 – 28 percent, that she was a more ethical businessperson than Scott when both were in the private sector, the independent Quinnipiac University survey finds. A total of 89 percent of likely voters say a candidate’s record in business is either somewhat or very important to their vote choice.
By a 42 – 37 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Sink, while Scott gets a negative 39 – 46 percent favorability rating. This compares to the October 1 survey showing her with a split 39 – 39 percent favorability, compared to Scott’s split 41 – 40 percent.

It says a lot about the national environment that Sink can’t get ahead of a Republican with a negative favorability rating.