A few House polls out this morning, all okay to good news for the GOP. In most of these, I think the more relevant number is the level of support for the incumbent.
In Florida:
Republican Allen West narrowly leads U.S. Rep. Ron Klein in a bruising battle for South Florida’s 22nd Congressional District, a new Sunshine State News Poll shows. West leads Klein 47-44 in the survey of likely voters conducted Oct. 17-19. Nine percent of respondents are undecided.West, a retired Army lieutenant colonel, lost by 10 points to Klein in 2008, a strong year for Democrats. But with Republicans surging this fall, West is picking up more independents, along with solid tea party support. “West has to be the slight favorite here simply because of the turnout differential,” said Jim Lee, president of Voter Survey Service, which conducted the poll for Sunshine State News. Lee reported that West’s 3-point lead grows to 5 points among respondents who say their chances of voting are “excellent” (49-44) and 4 points among “2x” voters, or those who cast ballots in both the ’08 and ’06 general elections (48-44).
In Michigan:
Freshmen Democrats Gary Peters and Mark Schauer hold small but significant leads in their fights to hold onto congressional seats in Oakland County and south-central Michigan, even as Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Snyder is pounding his Democratic opponent in both districts, a new Free Press-WXYZ-TV (Channel 7) poll shows. Peters leads Republican challenger Andrew (Rocky) Raczkowski 48% to 43% in the 9th District, while Schauer leads former Rep. Tim Walberg 45% to 39% in the hotly contested 7th District race, according to the poll conducted by EPIC/MRA of Lansing.
By the way, Politico touts these polls as “Big for Dems in the West.” Er . . .
And in Oregon:
In an election for US House of Representatives in Oregon’s 5th Congressional District today, Republican challenger Scott Bruun edges Democratic incumbent Kurt Schrader 51% to 41%, according to an exclusive KATU-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Bruun, elected to the Oregon House in 2004, runs strong among men and younger voters. Schrader is within striking distance among women and older voters. As it has in other geographies, SurveyUSA here probes to see if those who rarely vote in congressional elections, but who say they are uniquely motivated to vote in 2010, are voting Republican. One theory underlying much of the 2010 campaign narrative is that Republicans are uniquely motivated, Democrats uniquely dispirited.
As I said above, separate from name ID, people already know how they feel about the incumbent; they’re not likely to develop a sudden bout of admiration between now and Election Day.






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