Patrick Ruffini has some kind words about my how-Rudy-can-still-win scenario, but I think his analysis of the flaws in the we-can-wait-until-February 5 strategy, is pretty strong:

Rudy was never the frontrunner in any traditional sense. A fifteen point lead in the primary is not like a fifteen point lead in a general election. It can evaporate overnight. John Kerry went from 15 to 40 percent in the polls after winning Iowa. It was clear from the beginning that the situation was simply too fluid for Rudy to simply run out the clock. Third (and I’ll concede this can be temporary until Florida & Feb. 5 is upon us) but Rudy has missed out on the publicity surrounding the Iowa and New Hampshire contests. The coverage of Romney vs. Huck in Iowa has created centrifugal motion around those two, with voters nationally aligning on both sides of the Iowa proxy war. The McCain surge in New Hampshire is not confined to one state, but creates a rallying effect around him nationally. Missing in all this is Rudy. Just as voters tuned in to the race in November and December, he was totally AWOL in the early state-centric coverage.

One of the campaigns looked at my scenario and said that it didn’t account for momentum, and that if McCain won New Hampshire and Romney had lost both Iowa and New Hampshire, there was little chance Romney would come back.

Indeed. But “momentum” is just one variable too many this far out. Does Huckabee win Iowa, and suddenly surge even further in every state, like Kerry did in 2004? Does Romney outperform his polls, and win Iowa, and suddenly solidify his lead in New Hampshire? Could John McCain shock everyone by coming in second in Iowa, become the real story, get days of glowing “comeback kid” coverage, and then win New Hampshire by as wide a margin? Could Thompson make some noise in Iowa?

There are four big states before Florida. We could have four winners, or we could have one. Or we could have somewhere in between. I’m leaning against one guy sweeping the table, though.

I’d also note that as Huckabee has risen, and some folks have deemed him unacceptable, it’s now becoming clear that Not Huckabee conservatives don’t think Giuliani is the guy to do it.

Rudy’s been running all-year as the Hillary Slayer. Turns out Barack Obama might be a Hillary Slayer. Who would have thought that Rudy would need to run as a Huckabee Slayer?