Connecticut Democrat Jim Himes was not on my initial list of 80 or so vulnerable Democrats or open-seat races, but a couple of readers urged his inclusion.

The evidence is mounting that Himes’s GOP challenger, Dan Debicella, has some momentum in a surprisingly favorable environment. His campaign commissioned a poll by National Research Inc. in Connecticut’s 4th congressional district on March 9-10. The survey was conducted among 300 likely voters and has a margin of error of ± 5.7 percent. The findings:

Jim Himes has a weak re-elect number. Only 43% of district voters feel that Himes has done a good enough job to deserve re-election.
• Voters are highly dissatisfied with Speaker Pelosi and Congressional Democrats. Only 33% approve of the job they are doing in Congress, while 59% disapprove.
• Dan Debicella is doing a remarkable job of building support. His name ID has increased through the year (up to 31%), when compared to polls we’ve seen from other candidates earlier in the year. But even more importantly, among voters who know enough about Dan to have formed an opinion, 71% are favorable.
• The race is essentially tied 44-42% after voters learn a few basics about Dan. After informing voters about Dan’s background and message, he ties Himes in the election (44% Himes – 42% Debicella).
• Debicella beats Himes 50-38% once voters are fully informed about both candidates’ records.
As you know, campaigns are about contrasts. Voters have every right to know about some of the key votes that Himes cast down in Washington and that Dan cast in Hartford. And when they learn about these votes, the results for Himes are not encouraging: Dan Debicella beats him 50-38% once voters are informed about both candidates’ backgrounds and positions. Of course, this assumes that voters hear about both Dan’s positions and Himes’ voting record.

Obviously, this doesn’t guarantee a Debicella victory. But it’s now a possibility . . .