Latest batch of Quinnipiac primary polls in swing states:

FLORIDA: Clinton 53 – Obama 17; Giuliani 30 – Romney 12;
OHIO: Clinton 45 – Obama 19; Giuliani 29 – McCain 13;
PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 43 – Obama 15; Giuliani 27 – Huckabee, McCain 13

My distinguished colleague David Freddoso – who’s like an almanac of American politics on legs – has been looking at the delegate rules for each state; apparently Pennsylvania’s are particularly Byzantine, in that primary voters vote for the delegate, not the candidate, on the ballot. (The ballot may not even list which delegate supports which candidate!) So if we get to the point where these states really matter in the nomination, we may see a complicated fight over voting procedures that make Florida 2000 look like a tea party.

Also note that the Q-poll’s head to head numbers are bouncing around quite a bit:

  • Florida: Clinton tops Giuliani 48 – 41 percent; Giuliani led 46 – 43 percent October 25;
  • Ohio: Clinton leads Giuliani 45 – 41 percent compared to 44 percent for Clinton and 43 percent for Giuliani November 14;
  • Pennsylvania: Clinton and Giuliani are tied 44 – 44 percent, compared to a 45 – 43 percent

Good news for Hillary, although it’s not quite clear why she her numbers would be slipping nationally, but improving in the head-to-head matchups…