I think Brown’s doing quite well. I’ll make my final, percentages-and-all prediction tomorrow, but I think Brown’s the favorite. But some factors in the InsiderAdvantage poll, putting Brown up 9 percentage points, make me think it’s a pretty optimistic vision of what the Massachusetts electorate will look like. I’d love to think Scott Brown is winning 24 percent of Democrats and 68 percent of Independents, but… really?

I’d love to think Scott Brown is winning 26 percent of the African-American vote, but.. really?

On the other hand, an Irish bookie “already has paid off bettors who wagered that state Sen. Scott Brown, a conservative Republican, would win the seat held for nearly 50 years by liberal Democratic icon Edward M. Kennedy.”

UPDATE: From a great Irish reader: “Knowing that you love omens and precedents and stuff, I thought I should let you know that Paddy power have a dreadful record at getting this stuff right. In 2008, they lost hundreds of thousands by paying out on the result of our referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. They’ve gotten several by-elections wrong here too. This will cost them very little – this is Ireland, where Ted Kennedy was a HERO. Nobody would ever have bet on the evil republicans taking his seat.”