I’m sure a few Iowa caucusgoers won’t like my assessment of their voting habits and preferences in my NRO column, “What Happens In Iowa, Stays in Iowa.” But one of the quirks of the locals is really sticking in my craw…

The state exhibits other quirks in its political tastes. Caucusgoers claim to be violently allergic to “negative advertising.” Congressional Quarterly describes it as “‘Iowa nice’ — the tendency of Iowans to be friendly and civil — and expect the same from their presidential candidates.” The “murder-suicide” between Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt in 2004 is often cited, but even here, Iowans are being unfair by recoiling from both the mud-slinger going negative and the target. Apparently they deem the criticism worth taking into consideration when selecting a candidate, but somehow simultaneously illegitimate for another candidate to raise or discuss. But even if the “Be Nice” commandment were applied fairly across the board, Iowans’ no-negativity standards provide particular challenges for any underdog. Once in a great while, a little-known candidate can climb in the polls simply by touting their own strengths, but often a challenger needs a contrast, to be able to finish the sentence, “I am a better choice for the party than the frontrunner, because ____.”

For this, and many other reasons, I think that the primary process of 2012 may look quite different from this year’s, and I think Iowa’s days as the first state to play a role in that process may be numbered…