The Alex Gage memo from the Romney camp is reason for the former Massachusetts’ governor to cheer.

But I’m a little wary of some points they make. They declare “we are now in a two-man race and a few points’ movement among conservatives is all that’s needed to tip the scales in favor of Gov. Romney.”

Well, yes, but nobody told Mike Huckabee that it’s a two man race, and he’s campaigning hard through the deep red Super Tuesday states that might prefer Romney to McCain: Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia. (A couple of my Georgia readers think that state isn’t wrapped up for Huckabee. I note one poll puts Romney tied for first in Georgia, but most polls put him back by a significant margin.)

There’s four states with 174 delegates where Romney will probably take second at best.

(And I’d note that as Romney has done surprisingly well in the West, he’s done surprisingly poorly in the South — fourth in South Carolina, fourth in Louisiana’s caucus, disappointing second in Florida. Maybe it’s the Mormon thing, maybe it’s a northern/southern culture thing, Romney just doesn’t seem to be a natural fit with the Southern states.)

Again, it’s tough to see McCain losing several of these winner-take-all states – his home state of Arizona, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut. (Rasmussen puts McCain up in Connecticut, 42 to 26, and that’s with Rudy pulling 12. If that’s accurate, even if you put all of Giuliani’s votes in Romney’s pile, and he’s still coming home with 0 delegates.)

With those four states, McCain gets 236 delegates.

So even if Huckabee fades to almost nothing outside the South, and even if Romney gets that head-to-head matchup in states with conservative voter pools… he’s still only playing for about 600 of the 1,009 delegates at stake Tuesday.

A Rasmussen poll puts Romney within four points in California, which is a nice sign, although we don’t really know how that breaks down on a district-by-district basis. In Illinois, Rasmussen puts Romney behind by a modest margin, and perhaps he can close the gap.

Looking at the rest of the field, the states that look best for Romney tend to have fewer delegates. He’ll win Massachusetts (41 delegates) and Utah (36 delegates). He should win Colorado (46 delegates), Montana (25 delegates) and maybe North Dakota (26 delegates). I put Delaware in Romney’s pile, based on an old poll, but that’s only 18 delegates.

Except for Utah, Romney will probably get the majority, but not all, of those 250 delegates.

It’s not hopeless for Romney. As noted earlier, Missouri (58 delegates) is a big battleground. Nobody seems to have a good handle on Minnesota’s caucus (40 delegates); Romney’s gaining ground but third in Oklahoma (41 delegates) and nobody knows how West Virginia will shake out (although I am told Ron Paul’s folks have been well-organized there).

But in the end, right now McCain starts the delegate fight with polling leads in the biggest winner-take-all states. In McCain’s best states, Romney gets no delegates. But in most of Romney’s best states, McCain should get a few delegates here, a few delegates there. It’s tough to make up ground under those circumstances.