A short while ago, I noted that Joseph Cao is a definitely switching from “yes” to “no” and that Dennis Cardoza and Bart Stupak look pretty darn likely.

Now Rep. Michael Arcuri (D., N.Y.) looks like another flip against Pelosi.

Rep. Michael Arcuri (D-NY) voted for House health care legislation in November. But he says he’s almost certain to vote no on the Senate bill when it comes up for a vote in the House later this month, according to a report in the Utica Observer-Dispatch.

If the report that retiring Tennessee Democrat John Tanner refuses to flip is accurate, Pelosi needs at least three of the remaining eight “Suicide Squad” members to switch, and no more Democrats to flip to “no.”

Or, presuming Stupak and Cardoza vote no, if five more Democrats join Arcuri in flipping to ‘no’, then it doesn’t matter what the eight remaining Suicide Squad members do; it’s game over, at least for this version of the bill.