A lot of factors are driving criticism of Michael Steele (see below), but one of them might be that the most immediately pressing contest for the Republican party, a special election in New York’s 20th House district, is looking shakier and shakier.

The DCCC is touting a poll that puts Democrat Scott Murphy within seven points of Republican Jim Tedisco in the contest, held March 31.

What really has Republicans unnerved is that their internal polls show a larger lead, but it is narrowing, uncomfortably quickly.

“The first poll had the Republican up 25, and the second poll has him up 15,” said a GOP consultant in the region, noting that Obama carried the district in 2008 by a narrow margin. “Some of that is natural as the voters get to know the candidates. But if there’s a third poll that I’m not privy to that shows continued erosion, then it’s reason for real concern.”